Every significant political moment generates a bottle of expectation. As it looms up and unfolds, the news media and commentators start rushing to judge how far the bottle has been filled by actual achievement. The G-20 – the world’s 19 richest states, plus the EU, the IMF, World Bank and a couple of other financial institutions – meet on Thursday 2 April in London. In full anticipation that the half-full/half-empty metaphor will be used to excess over the next few days, what are reasonable expectations this time? Continue reading
Obama
Obama in power (4): challenges, doubts and the G-20
Barack Obama comes to London this week – the heads of 20 other governments do too because G-20 has suddenly grown into G-22 but of course it’s Obama who sets the pulse racing. Everybody knows his host, Gordon Brown, needs the G-20 to be an all-out success; anything less – mere solid achievement, for example – will be spun as failure by the UK government’s army of critics. But is Obama in a similar situation?
G-20 summit: Brown revives Blair’s old Euro-Atlantic dream
So Gordon Brown went to Strasbourg and told the European Parliament that the EU is uniquely placed to provide world leadership in the economic crisis. Is this the Gordon Brown who deliberately avoided EU ministerial meetings and designed impassable tests the UK economy had to pass if he was to let it join the Euro? Why the change? Continue reading
Four issues at (or not at) the G-20 London summit
It looks like there will be some serious demonstrations to welcome the G-20 summiteers to London on 2 April. Protests will reflect anger at the human costs of the recession and a conviction (or hope) that the system has not only failed many ordinary people but is failing full stop. And there will be a lot of sympathy for the protests because it is hard to see the G-20 straightforwardly addressing the big problems. There are four in particular that could do with high-level attention. Continue reading
Climate change, conflict and development – under discussion
This is a key year for climate change policy, leading up to the summit in Copenhagen in December, which has the task of coming up with the “post-Kyoto” climate agreement. With the obscurantism of Bush replaced by the energy and commitment of the still new Obama administration, hopes are high though obstacles are many. As part of its preparations for the year ahead, on Thursday 12th the UK Foreign Office held a workshop at London School of Economics on climate security. Continue reading
Obama in power (3): Iraq – not as clear as it first seems
Speaking last Friday at the US Marine Corps Camp Lejeune base in North Carolina President Obama announced a big reduction in US troop numbers in Iraq from 142,000 down to 50,000 by August next year, with all US forces out by the end of 2011. So he has made his intentions clear. Or has he?
Obama in power (2): points from the US President’s speech to Congress
Barack Obama gained several points in opinion polls and a lot of favourable media comment for his speech to Congress on Tuesday 24 February. Its main focus was the economic crisis in the US. He had little to say on foreign policy, nothing new, mostly generalities, with a couple of worthwhile points. But in what he said on responding to crisis, there was much that reflects how the President sees the US place in the world and may therefore be suggestive of his administration’s stance and future actons. Here, without comment, are brief excerpts from the speech with points that I found especially significant on that score. Continue reading
Israel’s motives in Gaza
Why did Israel launch its offensive on Gaza on 27 December? Little is clear and as always there are competing accounts and interpretations, with even more confusion and argument over its degree of success or failure. Continue reading
Obama in power
So how do the first two weeks of the Obama administration’s international policies look? Too soon to pass judgement on the administration and its approach, too soon to tell very much, but not too soon for opinions and the commentariat is already full of them. In a provisional sort of way, let’s join in. Continue reading
Deflated in Davos? Impressions of economic leaders at work and play
News media have been reporting a deflated mood among the business leaders gathered in Davos for the annual World Economic Forum meeting. Some have even suggested an air of contrition and a bit of hair-shirt atonement, cutting down on the number of parties, ski-outings and suchlike. Perhaps that’s what they have seen and it’s all subjective and relative – but it’s not really what I’ve seen. I wouldn’t say the mood is upbeat, and of course there’s an awareness of the economic crunch all round. But what’s going on is a bit more subtle than mood-swings. Continue reading
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