There are reports in several outlets that Iran and the US are getting close to agreement on a memorandum to end the war. The reports are based, so it’s said, on leaks from the Pakistani team that is mediating the Iran-US discussions. So what we are seeing might be an effort by the mediators to move things along a bit. Or it may be a trial balloon at the request of one side or both to gauge reaction not only from the adversary but also, and more importantly, from their respective home fronts. Or we could just be hearing weightless rumours.

Only time will tell. We have heard so much rubbish in the claims and counter-claims from both sides that a bit of caution is justified. But being cautious about doubting the reports as well as believing them, it makes sense to take a closer look.

As I’ve said in earlier posts, ceasefires are complex and reflect the dynamics of war as much as the requirements of peace. The reported contents of the possible joint Iranian-US memo reflect that point. They would mean suspending rather than ending the war, and, thereby, making time available to actually bring the war to an end.

Here’s what the key points are thought to be:

1. A temporary halt to Iran’s nuclear enrichment, and/or a limitation on the amount of enriched uranium it can hold;
2. Gradually lifting US sanctions and releasing frozen Iranian funds;
3. Allowing more shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, leading in time to full freedom of passage;
4. Agreement to come to a broader and more detailed agreement, allowing 30 days for negotiation.

First of all, this is not a comprehensive settlement but it could be a first step. Having seen many first steps towards peace in several decades of looking at the question, it is clear to me that they are fundamental – they are how every journey starts – but the second and subsequent steps are all crucial too.

That said, let’s take the points in turn.

1. Halting/limiting enrichment: That’s right, the uranium enrichment that is part of the nuclear programme the US president has often said was ‘obliterated’ in June last year. Also, the uranium enrichment that that was limited by the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, from which the US president withdrew his country in 2018. Reinstating that kind of limitation would be beneficial and is eminently feasible.
2. Lift US sanctions and return the funds: My Iranian friends are already saying they’ll believe it when they see it. US sanctions on Iran were first imposed in 1979 because of the radical students who seized the US Embassy and held staff hostage with the approval of Iran’s then leader, Ayatollah Khomenei. Sanctions relief was also supposed to follow the 2015 Iran nuclear deal but never came through. Doing it now might seem like a reward to the Iranian regime for holding out despite its decapitation on the first day of this war. But long-term, sanctions relief will probably do more for the people of Iran than anything else can.
3. Freedom of passage through the Strait of Hormuz: Yes, like it was before the war.
4. Agreement to try for a broader agreement: The agreement will probably look a bit like the one that was being negotiated in February until the US president broke it off and started the war. The talks happening then were regarded as getting close to achieving agreement by both the mediators from Oman, and the UK National Security Adviser, who was observing.

It may seem as if a first good look at the main points of what may be an agreement between Iran and the USA confirms the widely held view that this war has achieved nothing. But look again.

Yes, for Israel and the USA who launched the war on 28 February, the war looks pointless – an exercise in foolish arrogance, based on a comprehensive misunderstanding of how power works in Iran, a misreading of the regime’s strategy, and a naive confidence in the effectiveness of force. On uranium enrichment, on freedom of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and on willingness to negotiate, Israel and the USA have achieved the status quo ante with gut-wrenching human tragedy and massive environmental pollution along the way back to the starting point. And on regime change, for all the silliness of remarks that if the leader has changed then the regime has changed, actually everybody knows that nothing has been achieved.

But for the Iranian leadership, if sanctions that have been in place for almost half a century are lifted and they do get access to frozen funds, then that is not simply a return to the status quo ante. That is a distinct gain, a new and better situation. It would be, for want of a better word, a win.

And the fact that it is such a clear advantage for Iran’s leaders coming out of this war is a large part of the explanation for my scepticism that this is really the end, or even the beginning of the end as somebody once said, even if the reports are completely accurate.