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Are ‘forever wars’ forever?

/ Dan Smith / 2 Comments

A new concept has emerged to haunt us – the forever war.

It’s just one aspect of the bleak global picture today: more armed conflicts than at any time since the second World War; higher military spending than at any time ever; a new nuclear arms race getting under way; ecological crisis on a scale never experienced before in human history.

And the further problem is the apparent incapacity of our international institutions to address these challenges properly, combined with the melange of ambition and dunder-headedness of key political leaders that actively make things worse. 

But is ‘forever war’ the right term?

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Democracy: foundation of peace, asset for security

/ Dan Smith / Leave a comment

Thirty-plus years of high-level scholarly research has shown that democracy enhances security and security likewise contributes to democracy. The research shows that democracies are vulnerable to a range of insidious challenges from hostile forces but they have inherent resources to resist these challenges. 

The thing is, those resources need to be mobilised to defend and deepen democracy. Otherwise we will sit and watch and moan as drip by drip, freedom by freedom, biased court case and bad law by biased court case and bad law, our democratic rights leak away.

If democracy ends, that’s how it will be – not with a bang but a whimper.

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War in the Gulf: Is it over? What’s the result?

/ Dan Smith / 2 Comments

There are reports in several outlets that Iran and the US are getting close to agreement on a memorandum to end the war. The reports are based, so it’s said, on leaks from the Pakistani team that is mediating the Iran-US discussions. So what we are seeing might be an effort by the mediators to move things along a bit. Or it may be a trial balloon at the request of one side or both to gauge reaction not only from the adversary but also, and more importantly, from their respective home fronts. Or we could just be hearing weightless rumours.

Only time will tell. We have heard so much rubbish in the claims and counter-claims from both sides that a bit of caution is justified. But being cautious about doubting the reports as well as believing them, it makes sense to take a closer look.

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Five global hinge points

/ Dan Smith / Leave a comment

Among those sayings that encapsulate political wisdom but are either inaccurate or apocryphal (such as the ancient Chinese curse, ‘May you live in interesting times’ that is neither Chinese nor ancient, or the misinterpretation of the Chinese character for crisis as fusion of danger and opportunity), I have a soft spot for the one by Harold Macmillan. When asked either what he most feared or what was most troubling when he was UK Prime Minister from 1957 to 1963, he may have replied, ‘Events, my dear boy, events.’

If he didn’t say it, he should have. The press of events is the bane of those trying to steer a strategic path in government. Today, it is particularly difficult because there are so many events consuming so much government oxygen while we face five major hinge points in global affairs that complicate everything.

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