Ecological security: an important moment

The UN General Assembly high-level week is an uber talkfest, so it’s important to use the opportunity to say something important. While most of the media attention has been on some more rambling boasting from the US President, UK Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband did indeed use the opportunity and used it well.

An intelligence assessment for the UK government on the security impact of ecological disruption was completed not far short of a year ago. It is a report of the Joint Intelligence Committee so it is not a surprise that the government sat on it for several months. What was a surprise is that when it was finally published in January this year, instead of there being a fanfare, it was eased into public view as a report from the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. It was a kind of backhanded way of publishing it, suggesting a grudging acceptance of the need to publish it but no intention to go much further.

The Guardian says that the version that was published was redacted. If so, I shudder to think what may be in the full version. Here is the first sentence of the summary:

“Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten UK national security and prosperity.”

So far as I can see on reading it, no punches are pulled. And by the way, the otherwise excellent reportage in The Guardian is wrongly headlined to say the report is about the impact of climate change. The report rightly goes wider than that, as its title as well as its first sentence make clear.

So what did Ed Miliband do? –– He spoke. He shared the substance of the report at a meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, speaking to foreign ministers of the EU, Kenya and others. And he finished off with a good, sharp message:

“The countries fit for the future will be those that see climate and nature as intrinsic to economic and national security. 

“Countries that anticipate risks and invest in resilience before crises hit. 

“Countries that seize the incredible opportunities the clean energy transition presents. 

“Countries that don’t just see the connections but act on them. 

“That is why the UK is placing climate and nature security at the heart of our national security and foreign policy decision-making.”

This is a realignment of security policy that is badly needed. It’s obviously not enough to say it, you have to do it. It’s not enough for one country to do it, there have to be more. But this is a welcome sign of the UK under a new government getting back to forefront of this discussion, where it was ten years ago, and moving the discussion (and hopefully the policy) forward.

Environment of Peace: the research report in full

In the last couple of months I have been writing and posting articles based on the material assembled for the policy report, Environment of Peace: Security in a New Era of Risk that SIPRI published in May and first launched at the Stockholm Forum on Peace and Development. Now, with not a little sigh of relief combined with a real sense of achievement, SIPRI has published the research on which the policy report is based.

It is published in four parts.

  • Part 1, which I had the honour of being the lead author for, is entitled ‘Elements of a Planetary Emergency’.
  • Part 2, led by Cedric de Coning, is ‘Security Risks of Environmental Crises’.
  • Part 3, led by Geoff Dabelko, is ‘Navigating a Just and Peaceful Transition’.
  • And Part 4, led by Melvis Ndiloseh and Hafsa Maalim, is ‘Enabling an Environment of Peace’.

It’s a pretty chunky read – 277 pages and, for those who like to keep count, 1648 endnotes with the supporting references. The five lead authors were backed by a team of about 30 researchers and guided by an international advisory panel.

At the close of 2022, perhaps some of us risk feeling overwhelmed. It is crisis, crisis, crisis all over the place: hunger, biodiversity, energy, economy, supply chains, mental health, security, migration, cost of living and climate. If we manage not to turn away from all of them, it is all too tempting to focus on one or two, either as the magic key for solving the whole lot, or because that’s all the mind can handle.

The uncomfortable fact is that these crises are connected and interacting. The aim of the Environment of Peace initiative that SIPRI set going in 2020 is to understand and explain how those interconnections work, and show how knowing about them can be turned to advantage as we find inter-connected solutions.

Probably the full research report is not everybody’s cup of green tea. But the policy report could be. I didn’t have a hand in writing it so I can contentedly say it is extremely well written and clearly presented and super-well worth the read. And for those who want to explore more deeply or check out the underlying evidence and analytical foundations, the full research report is there for you.

Between two COPs

It is well established that, worldwide, there is an unfolding, escalating, multi-factor environmental crisis. It is seen in the loss of biodiversity and of biomass, massive changes in the use of land, air pollution, chemical pollution, plastics pollution and climate change. It has effects on health, food security, livelihoods, social and political stability, conflicts and the ability to handle them.

There is no real empirical argument left about any of this. It is getting something done to arrest the slide that is hard.

Two main international agreements attempt to address the environmental crisis: the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity. There was a Conference of Parties (COP) – a kind of health check – for the climate convention at the start of November, and there will be one on the Biodiversity Convention in December.

So right now we are between two COPs.

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Indicators of our current insecurity

Global insecurity today is shaped by the combination of an environmental crisis, in which climate change is prominent but by no means the only element, and a darkening security horizon. These twin crises are linked: each worsens the other so steps to address them can and should also be linked.

Nature and peace: damage one, damage the other; protect one, enhance the other.

To identify possible remedies for the global malady, we need to understand the intersection of problems and issues. But it may be useful to begin by looking at the components. After all, insecurity is not just one thing, nor is the environmental crisis. There are diverse indicators of each.

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Realism means cooperation

Consider some problems: climate change, the challenges of new technologies, the crisis in nuclear arms control, inequalities, freedom of navigation in the Gulf, increasing hunger and food insecurity, demographic pressures, the greater number of armed conflicts in this decade than the previous one, discrimination and repression on the basis of gender or faith or sexual preference, plastic pollution, pandemics, the sixth mass extinction and more. What conclusions can we draw? Continue reading →

SIPRI Yearbook 2019: Nuclear weapons and other key trends

The SIPRI Yearbook 2019 is now available on line. It registers key data in the world of peace and security in 2018 and establishes some of the basic indicators that let us track and assess the trends. It is not a comfortable picture.

You can get a quick take on it from my shorthand overview below and/or from the latest short film in our Peace Points series.

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