Why did Israel launch its offensive on Gaza on 27 December? Little is clear and as always there are competing accounts and interpretations, with even more confusion and argument over its degree of success or failure. Continue reading
Obama in power
So how do the first two weeks of the Obama administration’s international policies look? Too soon to pass judgement on the administration and its approach, too soon to tell very much, but not too soon for opinions and the commentariat is already full of them. In a provisional sort of way, let’s join in. Continue reading
One time only investment advice: go green
My blog is not especially meant for investors, there are masses of places where investors get advised on and off the internet, I don’t know anything about investment anyway and have never invested in anything in my life. So I thought it was time to offer some advice to investors. It is simple – the low carbon economy is where the future lies so turn to carbon-zero technologies for profits and a good, clean feeling.
Deflated in Davos? Impressions of economic leaders at work and play
News media have been reporting a deflated mood among the business leaders gathered in Davos for the annual World Economic Forum meeting. Some have even suggested an air of contrition and a bit of hair-shirt atonement, cutting down on the number of parties, ski-outings and suchlike. Perhaps that’s what they have seen and it’s all subjective and relative – but it’s not really what I’ve seen. I wouldn’t say the mood is upbeat, and of course there’s an awareness of the economic crunch all round. But what’s going on is a bit more subtle than mood-swings. Continue reading
Some perfect storm signs
One of the possible ingredients for mixing up a perfect storm of conflict and crisis is the likelihood of European governments focusing on their own internal affairs under the impact of the economic crisis, especially if the crisis leads to social instability and violent protest. This would necessarily divert political attention and energy away from responding to the initial signs of crisis and conflict escalation on other continents. Continue reading
The food fulcrum
A billion are underfed and a billion are overweight. People, that is. Publication of an excellent report on food security by Alex Evans, The Feeding of the Nine Billion, offers an occasion for reflecting on how food sits at the fulcrum of many of the outstanding concerns of today – climate change and conflict, poverty and wealth, deprivation and privilege, power and exclusion. Continue reading
How a conflict could lead to a perfect storm
The world is in parlous condition. A violent conflict could quickly escalate out of control into a perfect storm, in which a local conflict becomes a major regional explosion. The risk is of low probability but high impact. The likelihood can be made even lower if the international system and its major actors remain watchful and ready to respond quickly. For that readiness to be real, we need to think the risk through. Continue reading
Water shortages feed risk of conflict
A new report from the Pacific Institute in California is featured in a Times (London) story this morning, which links humanity’s expanding “water footprint” to increasing risks of armed conflict. The conflict and peace implications of climate change are explored in an International Alert report, A Climate of Conflict, from late 2007.
Banks – a failure of service
Imagine how the world would look if banking were seen as a service, out of which profit can reasonably be made, as I suggested in my last post, instead of being seen almost exclusively as a profit-making business. Instead of thinking about the impact of two more grisly days for trading in bank shares on both sides of the Atlantic, let’s spend some time on how things might be different. Continue reading
The banks are drowning – more than rescue is needed
Some people believe that a drowning man comes up three times for air before finally succumbing. Put another way – he goes down three times before he stays there. Is that’s what happening with the banks? Continue reading
Dan Smith's blog 