World order §3a: NATO enlargement

Most of NATO is involved, together with other states that are politically defined as part of the ‘West’, in the war in Ukraine by providing training and equipment for Ukraine’s armed forces and by supporting its government financially and politically. NATO is also involved in another way as part of the Russian narrative that presents the invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 as forced upon Russia by NATO’s incorporation of eastern European states since the end of the Cold War.

Russian spokespersons and others have treated NATO’s increasing membership as an exculpatory reason for, or a partial justification for, or a proximate cause of, or a contributing factor to Russia’s war against Ukraine. These are arguments worth looking into.

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World order §3: The current disorder

The world order is under pressure. For world peace and stability, the core security tasks of the key international organisations such as, above all, the UN and regional organizations such as the African Union (AU) and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) are to manage and reduce conflict and to establish and build peace.

The problem is that for the past decade and more, the overall number and longevity of armed conflicts have increased along with their intractability. These armed conflicts that international mediation or conflict management seem unable to reach or influence are, alongside confrontation between the great powers and generally toxic geopolitics, key markers of the current disorder.  

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World order §2: Power, norms, origins and longevity

The world order is under pressure from a combination of political, economic, social and ecological factors, to such an extent that it is not simply weakening but is at risk of cracking, fragmenting and coming to an end. There are some who will cheer because of its many evident flaws over the past 80 years, the injustices and wars it has permitted and even fostered. But be careful what you wish for, folks. Too much of history warns us that doing away with an unjust order does not necessarily mean introducing one that is more fair. And the world order that is staggering today brought some real benefits despite its flaws.

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