One of the possible ingredients for mixing up a perfect storm of conflict and crisis is the likelihood of European governments focusing on their own internal affairs under the impact of the economic crisis, especially if the crisis leads to social instability and violent protest. This would necessarily divert political attention and energy away from responding to the initial signs of crisis and conflict escalation on other continents. Continue reading
The economic crunch
How a conflict could lead to a perfect storm
The world is in parlous condition. A violent conflict could quickly escalate out of control into a perfect storm, in which a local conflict becomes a major regional explosion. The risk is of low probability but high impact. The likelihood can be made even lower if the international system and its major actors remain watchful and ready to respond quickly. For that readiness to be real, we need to think the risk through. Continue reading
Banks – a failure of service
Imagine how the world would look if banking were seen as a service, out of which profit can reasonably be made, as I suggested in my last post, instead of being seen almost exclusively as a profit-making business. Instead of thinking about the impact of two more grisly days for trading in bank shares on both sides of the Atlantic, let’s spend some time on how things might be different. Continue reading
The banks are drowning – more than rescue is needed
Some people believe that a drowning man comes up three times for air before finally succumbing. Put another way – he goes down three times before he stays there. Is that’s what happening with the banks? Continue reading
Sustaining peace amid economic crisis
The hidden good news of the last two decades since the end of the Cold War is that, despite throwing up horrors to rank alongside history’s worst, this has been an era of growing peace. This progress is now threatened with reversal but it did not happen by chance and it is possible to prevent the worst from happening.
Dan Smith's blog 