News media have been reporting a deflated mood among the business leaders gathered in Davos for the annual World Economic Forum meeting. Some have even suggested an air of contrition and a bit of hair-shirt atonement, cutting down on the number of parties, ski-outings and suchlike. Perhaps that’s what they have seen and it’s all subjective and relative – but it’s not really what I’ve seen. I wouldn’t say the mood is upbeat, and of course there’s an awareness of the economic crunch all round. But what’s going on is a bit more subtle than mood-swings. Continue reading
Author: Dan Smith
Some perfect storm signs
One of the possible ingredients for mixing up a perfect storm of conflict and crisis is the likelihood of European governments focusing on their own internal affairs under the impact of the economic crisis, especially if the crisis leads to social instability and violent protest. This would necessarily divert political attention and energy away from responding to the initial signs of crisis and conflict escalation on other continents. Continue reading
The food fulcrum
A billion are underfed and a billion are overweight. People, that is. Publication of an excellent report on food security by Alex Evans, The Feeding of the Nine Billion, offers an occasion for reflecting on how food sits at the fulcrum of many of the outstanding concerns of today – climate change and conflict, poverty and wealth, deprivation and privilege, power and exclusion. Continue reading
How a conflict could lead to a perfect storm
The world is in parlous condition. A violent conflict could quickly escalate out of control into a perfect storm, in which a local conflict becomes a major regional explosion. The risk is of low probability but high impact. The likelihood can be made even lower if the international system and its major actors remain watchful and ready to respond quickly. For that readiness to be real, we need to think the risk through. Continue reading
Water shortages feed risk of conflict
A new report from the Pacific Institute in California is featured in a Times (London) story this morning, which links humanity’s expanding “water footprint” to increasing risks of armed conflict. The conflict and peace implications of climate change are explored in an International Alert report, A Climate of Conflict, from late 2007.
Banks – a failure of service
Imagine how the world would look if banking were seen as a service, out of which profit can reasonably be made, as I suggested in my last post, instead of being seen almost exclusively as a profit-making business. Instead of thinking about the impact of two more grisly days for trading in bank shares on both sides of the Atlantic, let’s spend some time on how things might be different. Continue reading
The banks are drowning – more than rescue is needed
Some people believe that a drowning man comes up three times for air before finally succumbing. Put another way – he goes down three times before he stays there. Is that’s what happening with the banks? Continue reading
The power of Obama
A few days away from inauguration, there is a palpable eagerness to know how US policy will be under Barrack Obama. Most discussion of this is about his vision and strategic preferences. I think we should also look at the basics of US power. Because, call me old-fashioned or what, I believe that however transformational Obama is, he will also be the American President.
Gaza
Others are writing with wisdom, evidence and pain on the current events in Gaza and right now I have nothing to add. But I do recommend two web-sites for a human rights perspective from within Israel: one is a coalition of human rights groups, specifically on Gaza, and the other is B’Tselem‘s (both their “Gaza strip” summary and “Statistics” drop-down are especially useful).
Sustaining peace amid economic crisis
The hidden good news of the last two decades since the end of the Cold War is that, despite throwing up horrors to rank alongside history’s worst, this has been an era of growing peace. This progress is now threatened with reversal but it did not happen by chance and it is possible to prevent the worst from happening.
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